These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,227 adults surveyed online between June 14 and 21, 2010 by Harris Interactive.
The general sense toward the situation in Afghanistan is also negative. Just one in ten Americans (10%) think the situation in Afghanistan is getting better, almost the same as in January (11%). Three in ten (29%) believe the situation is getting worse while half of Americans (49%) say there is no real change. And President Obama cannot count on people within his own party to support him on this issue. Half of both Republicans (51%) and Democrats (50%) say there is no real change in Afghanistan.
There is also a lack of confidence in long term success. Over half of Americans (55%) are not confident that U.S. policies in Afghanistan will be successful. One-third (34%) are not sure if these policies will be successful and only 12% are confident in the success in Afghanistan. Democrats are slightly more confident than both Republicans and Independents (17% vs. 10% and 8%).
Bringing troops home from Afghanistan
The timeframe for when U.S. troops should come home has been debated since American forces were first sent to Afghanistan. After the surge of troops was implemented, President Obama announced that some of those troops would begin coming home in the summer of 2011. American opinion is divided on this timetable. One-quarter of U.S. adults (25%) say all U.S. troops should come home now while 22% believe there should be no timetable for troops to come home. One in five Americans (19%) believe this is a good timetable for U.S. troops to come home, while 17% say some troops should come home before 2011 and 14% are not sure.
There is a slight shift of opinion in this since the beginning of the year. In January, over one-quarter of Americans (27%) believed there should be no timetable for U.S. troops to come home, while less than one-in five (18%) believed all U.S. troops should come home now.
There is also a large difference of opinion by political party. More than two in five Republicans (43%) believe there should be no timetable for troops to come home while 17% believe all troops should come home now and 9% believe summer of 2011 is a good timetable. One-third of Democrats (33%) believe summer of 2011 is a good timetable for troops to come home while one-quarter (26%) say all U.S. troops should come home now and 7% say there should not be a timetable.
Osama bin Laden
One view that hasn't changed so far this year is the belief that Osama bin Laden is still alive. Almost four in five Americans (78%) believe he is still alive with almost one-quarter (23%) saying he is definitely alive and 55% saying his is probably alive. The same number of Americans believed this in January of this year. Just one in ten U.S. adults (9%) say he is not alive while 13% are not at all sure.
So What?
The situation in Afghanistan is one other issue the Obama White House has on its plate for the unforeseeable future. When the focus shifted to Iraq, a lot of attention slipped away from Afghanistan and it became the "forgotten" war. With the situation in Afghanistan becoming more unstable, attention is now refocused there and Americans are going to expect something to change. If not, the same negative feelings they once felt towards Iraq will continue to emerge, and deepen, towards Afghanistan.
TABLE 1
PRESIDENT OBAMA AND AFGHANISTAN
"Now turning to Afghanistan, overall, how would you rate the job
President Obama has done in handling Afghanistan over the last
several months?"
Base: All Adults
April Sept Nov Jan June Political Party
2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
Rep. Dem. Ind.
% % % % % % % %
Positive (NET) 51 36 31 38 29 12 47 27
Excellent 10 5 4 7 3 1 7 2
Pretty Good 41 32 26 30 26 11 40 25
Negative (NET) 36 54 60 53 59 79 41 62
Only fair 26 35 33 31 33 36 32 32
Poor 10 19 27 22 26 43 9 31
Not sure 13 10 9 9 12 8 12 11
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.
TABLE 2
SITUATION IN AFGHANISTAN
"Do you think that the situation in Afghanistan is...?"
Base: All Adults
July May August April Sept Nov Jan June Political Party
2005 2007 2008 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
Rep. Dem. Ind.
% % % % % % % % % % %
Getting better 17 12 11 12 8 6 11 10 9 11 11
Getting worse 30 26 37 28 42 47 32 29 34 24 34
No real change 37 36 35 45 41 39 46 49 51 50 45
Not sure 16 26 18 16 9 8 11 12 7 14 10
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.
TABLE 3
CONFIDENCE IN POLICIES IN AFGHANISTAN
"How confident are you that U.S. policies in Afghanistan will be
successful?"
Base: All Adults
July May August April Sept Nov Jan June Political Party
2005 2007 2008 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
Rep. Dem. Ind.
% % % % % % % % % % %
Confident 25 22 17 27 14 12 15 12 10 17 8
Not
confident 45 41 54 40 55 61 53 55 65 44 61
Not sure 30 37 29 33 31 28 32 34 26 39 31
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.
TABLE 4
TROOP SURGE IN AFGHANISTAN
"President Obama recently announced that some of the troops that were
part of the surge in Afghanistan will start coming home in the
summer of 2011. Do you think...?"
Base: All Adults
Jan June Political Party
2010 2010
Rep. Dem. Ind.
% % % % %
All U.S. troops should come home now. 18 25 17 26 31
There should be no timetable for U.S.
troops to come home. 27 22 43 7 24
This is a good timetable for U.S. troops to
come home. 20 19 9 33 15
Some U.S. troops should come home before
2011. 18 17 15 21 14
Other 4 3 4 1 3
Not sure 12 14 12 12 13
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 5
OSAMA BIN LADEN
"Do you believe that Osama Bin Laden is still alive?"
Base: All Adults
Jan June Political Party
2010 2010
Rep. Dem. Ind.
% % % % %
Alive (NET) 78 78 86 77 75
He's definitely alive 23 23 22 24 22
He's probably alive 55 55 64 53 54
Not alive (NET) 10 9 7 9 11
He's probably not
alive 8 8 6 8 10
He's definitely not
alive 2 1 1 1 1
Not at all sure 12 13 7 14 14
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.MethodologyThis Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between June 14 and 21, 2010 among 2,227 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.
All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.
Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.
These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
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